SurplusProductivity - Your premier source for original economic content. A website by Paul Winghart Economist / Strategist / Educator and proud founder of Wing-O-Metrics™

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Hello!

My name is Paul Winghart and I built this site to inform, educate, and track an economic philosophy that I have come to call "Surplus Productivity". The idea is simple enough. The US economy is facing a surplus of productivity given the fact that its productivity is bottlenecked due to the lack of smart financial leverage available in the economy. You see, leverage is the main conduit in which productivity, or potential GDP, is transformed into something more kinetic. Without the appropriate leverage, current productivity remains in a largely static or inert state even as more productivity is accumulated.

Since productivity is the key component to an economy's potential, the actual growth in the economy will lag almost as if it is being dragged forward against its will.  That is why I call surplus productivity a force because it is a measure of mass (surplus) and acceleration (productivity). That is I also call any economic disruptions during this phase of surplus productivity "processions". Not only does the "pro" stand for "productivity", a procession aptly describes the pace of economic growth these days: unrelentingly forward at a pace tremendously below potential.

The theory of surplus productivity is a product of Wing-O-Metrics, my personal educated spin on statistics and economics that enable me to pen daily updates on the fixed income markets, tweet significant finds, and build charts of economic data that I find particularly relevant.

After 15 years in the financial industry as an interest rate strategist, I know for a fact that independent thought is the best thought. It is through my logic that I have been fortunate enough to appear on TV, radio, and podcasts as well as present to students, professors, and business leaders. I have been publicly recognized for my work  (2011 & 2012 Financial Advisor/ Private Wealth Magazine's Due Diligence All-Star Team nomination) as well as published (2010, Municipal Finance Journal) and quoted in various National Publications.

I hope you spend some time on my site and visit it frequently. If so inclined, sign up for my daily fixed income email or follow me on twitter and flickr. Either way, you'll find it fun and learn about our short-term trends and long term economic future.

Thank You
Paul
Special thanks to everyone over at the Minnesota Chapter of the MTA! It is always a pleasure to work with such gracious and professional hosts!
Please click on the enclosed PowerPoint file to review the slide deck from the MTA January meeting.
MTA_Minnesota_1_21_2014.pdf
3.2 MB
Janet Yellen's confirmation testimony centered on the fact that the economy was growing "far short of its potential". To gain a deeper apprecication of the economic dynamic that she alludes to, please read Mr. Winghart's Winter 2010 speech entitled:
Economic Trends: The Past and the Future
which was subsequently published in the Municipal Finance Journal Volume 30, Number 4


Click on the icon below to open the PDF
Evaporation_of_Wealth_.pdf
13.7 MB
You may not want it, but you need a more technical readout on the October 2013 Jobs report to really understand the government shutdown's impact on the economic data. Please read Mr. Winghart's latest piece entitled:
The October 2013 Jobs Report
and gain a deeper appreciation for volatility and the data.

Click on the icon below to open the PDF
The_October_2013_Jobs_Report.pdf
314.9 KB
Looking for an equity perspective on surplus productivity? Please read Mr.Winghart's latest peice entitled
"It is okay not to fight the Fed, you just better make damn sure you know what the Fed is fighting for."
and find out just four of the dynamics you need to keep on top of.

Click on the icon below to open the PDF
Dont_Fight_The_Fed.pdf
403.1 KB
   In a recent presentation to the World Futures Society's annual world conference, Mr. Winghart went over the finer points of surplus productivity and its impacts on a wide range of economic sectors entittled, in a speech titled:

Productivity and the Future of Interest Rates

Click on the icon below to download a copy of the slides
and one complete with speaker's notes.

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